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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–4 on winners spread MAE 15.3 33 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Jackson State @ Louisville	+26.2	150.4	91%	70–106	✓
Campbell @ West Virginia	+13.5	138.9	83%	65–73	✓
The Citadel @ Boston College	—	—	—	47–76	—
Illinois State @ Ohio	—	—	—	68–72	—
Central Connecticut @ Quinnipiac	—	—	—	49–71	—
Le Moyne @ Xavier	—	—	—	69–74	—
Bethune-Cookman @ Miami	+8.6	150.6	74%	61–101	✓
Robert Morris @ Drake	+12.1	149.5	85%	81–79	✗
North Florida @ Florida	—	—	—	64–104	—
Grambling @ Iowa State	—	—	—	62–102	—
Merrimack @ Auburn	+7.9	146.4	74%	57–95	✓
Alcorn State @ South Alabama	+13.4	152.7	88%	70–76	✓
Northwestern State @ North Texas	—	—	—	53–80	—
Texas Southern @ Texas A&M	+22.3	145.7	90%	70–104	✓
UC Riverside @ North Dakota	—	—	—	74–70	—
Omaha @ Abilene Christian	—	—	—	71–73	—
Cal State Northridge @ Northern Iowa	—	—	—	57–86	—
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SMU	—	—	—	58–69	—
Chicago State @ Saint Louis	+16.4	147.5	87%	86–108	✓
Saint Francis @ TCU	+4.6	147.3	66%	63–104	✓
Mercyhurst @ Loyola Chicago	+6.2	141.1	71%	73–65	✗
Denver @ Washington	+14.9	145.4	86%	70–84	✓
Wright State @ California	—	—	—	67–77	—
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Portland	—	—	—	74–83	—
Columbia @ New Haven	—	—	—	71–53	—
SIU Edwardsville @ UTSA	—	—	—	77–60	—
Northeastern @ Colgate	+11.6	144.0	85%	68–65	✗
Charleston @ Liberty	—	—	—	75–90	—
Boston University @ Northwestern	+7.7	134.9	65%	52–76	✓
Georgetown @ Maryland	+14.8	146.9	87%	70–60	✗
Tulsa @ Rhode Island	—	—	—	82–65	—
Green Bay @ Buffalo	+11.4	144.7	82%	76–83	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Ohio State	+8.9	156.7	75%	68–94	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.