Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -7500 MERC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +8 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -15.3 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | LUC -6.2 (-14.2) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -7.4 (-15.4) | 146.9 (-8.9) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#237) | -1.0 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#61) | -0.26 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#135) | -0.37 (#193) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 30.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 5.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 30.8% |
| TOV% | 9.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 50.0% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 51.9% |
Game Analysis
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