Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -190 GB +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -23.0 (-16.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -11.4 (-4.4) | 144.7 (+14.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -13.2 (-6.2) | 150.7 (+8.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.9 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#219) | -7.7 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#38) | -0.26 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#122) | -0.40 (#232) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 28.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 35.7% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 47.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.0% | 65.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 4.7% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.0% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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