Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -38.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +36 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -45.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -26.2 (+9.8) | 150.4 (+25.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -38.2 (-2.2) | 154.4 (+21.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 83.8 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#4) | -12.7 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#60) | -0.26 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#30) | -0.41 (#241) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.2% | 30.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 19.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.9% | 36.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 9.1% |
| FT Rate | 41.9% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 24.6% | 66.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 31.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 41.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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