Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -25.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -14.9 (-0.9) | 145.4 (+8.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -18.0 (-4.0) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#18) | 3.0 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#103) | -0.26 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#38) | -0.33 (#162) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 53.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 51.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 39.3% | 41.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 31.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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