Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MD -215 GTWN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +10 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -28.1 (-38.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | MD -14.8 (-24.8) | 146.9 (-16.9) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -18.2 (-28.2) | 149.3 (-19.3) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#25) | -1.0 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#25) | 0.26 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#17) | 0.35 (#92) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 15.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 2.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 9.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 41.8% | 41.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.2% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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