Betting Lines
| Spread | TA&M -29.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | TA&M -50000 TXSO +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TA&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +34 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | TA&M -35.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TA&M -22.3 (+11.7) | 145.7 (+28.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TA&M -27.4 (+6.6) | 150.1 (+23.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TA&M | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 80.0 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#74) | -11.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#91) | -0.26 (#233) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#62) | -0.41 (#240) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TA&M | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 25.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 28.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 43.6% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 44.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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