Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -2000 BCU +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +40 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -14.0 (+26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -8.6 (+31.4) | 150.6 (+11.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -9.5 (+30.5) | 155.6 (+6.4) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#149) | 5.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#63) | -0.26 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#93) | -0.28 (#149) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.1% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 21.4% | 52.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 59.2% | 11.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 84.4% | 60.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 39.7% |
Game Analysis
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