Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -10000 SFPA +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +41 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -17.3 (+23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -4.6 (+36.4) | 147.3 (+19.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -4.6 (+36.4) | 151.4 (+15.6) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#256) | -5.4 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#267) | -0.26 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#265) | -0.39 (#226) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 11.1% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.0% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 10.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 63.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 57.1% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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