Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -10000 MRMK +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +38 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -17.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -7.9 (+30.1) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -8.2 (+29.8) | 151.4 (+0.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-0 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#223) | -3.0 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#32) | -1.06 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#124) | -1.50 (#255) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 32.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 39.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 39.7% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.4% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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