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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–2 on winners
spread MAE 6.0
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northeastern
@
Monmouth
|
+3.7 | 136.9 | 69% | 62–81 | ✓ |
Howard
@
South Carolina State
|
-3.8 | 154.5 | 31% | 82–78 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Morgan State
|
-2.9 | 141.0 | 35% | 78–66 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Southern
|
+6.5 | 140.7 | 76% | 58–79 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+1.8 | 137.6 | 60% | 58–60 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Coppin State
|
-0.5 | 128.8 | 44% | 55–58 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Northwestern State
|
-14.6 | 141.6 | 13% | 68–59 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Lamar
|
+6.3 | 154.6 | 75% | 59–75 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+11.4 | 143.5 | 87% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Grambling
|
+0.6 | 131.2 | 48% | 54–52 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-4.8 | 150.8 | 28% | 83–72 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-4.1 | 137.2 | 30% | 78–70 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
Cornell
|
+10.1 | 159.1 | 84% | 79–91 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Georgetown
|
-3.2 | 139.6 | 37% | 74–70 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.