Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | MVSU +270 AAMU -345 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -4.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -4.1 (-3.9) | 137.2 (+10.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -5.6 (-2.4) | 135.7 (+12.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -4.7 (-3.3) | 138.6 (+9.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -4.3 (-3.7) | 135.3 (+12.7) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | AAMU 72 – 65 MVSU |
| Jan 6, 2026 | AAMU 71 – 51 MVSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | AAMU 82 – 70 MVSU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | AAMU 79 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | AAMU 80 – 57 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-30 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 1-8 | 7-5 |
| Away | 0-22 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 55.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -22.8 (#363) | -14.1 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.13 (#354) | -1.95 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#354) | -3.08 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#283) | 0.424 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 27.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.41 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.3% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 27.0% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 60.7% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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