Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -260 PV +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -8.6 (+12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.5 (+15.5) | 143.4 (-6.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -6.5 (+14.5) | 140.7 (-3.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.9 (+15.1) | 140.2 (-3.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -5.4 (+15.6) | 145.2 (-8.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PV 72 – 66 SOU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SOU 87 – 82 PV |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PV 89 – 85 SOU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SOU 72 – 60 PV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SOU 84 – 80 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-2 | 5-6 |
| Away | 7-11 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#233) | -8.0 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#147) | -0.87 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#178) | -1.11 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#126) | 0.456 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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