← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
@
Minnesota
|
-3.3 | 165.8 | 37% | 95–102 | ✗ |
Houston
@
UCF
|
-2.1 | 135.7 | 38% | 63–54 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Louisville
|
+11.3 | 131.6 | 80% | 59–62 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Cleveland State
|
-0.7 | 138.9 | 48% | 69–87 | ✗ |
Ohio State
@
Northwestern
|
+5.9 | 146.9 | 74% | 70–71 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
LSU
|
+20.8 | 152.1 | 91% | 80–86 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Towson
|
+8.0 | 142.2 | 78% | 73–78 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Gonzaga
|
+2.1 | 145.2 | 64% | 75–98 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Illinois
|
+10.9 | 150.4 | 86% | 60–69 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Detroit Mercy
|
+9.7 | 152.2 | 84% | 77–75 | ✗ |
Norfolk State
@
George Mason
|
+5.3 | 134.9 | 70% | 68–65 | ✗ |
Green Bay
@
Wright State
|
+19.4 | 146.1 | 91% | 53–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.