← All models
Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+4.6 | 142.9 | 65% | 58–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 142.0 | 72% | 63–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 143.8 | 67% | 73–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 153.0 | 54% | 49–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 144.3 | 66% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 145.6 | 23% | 82–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 155.8 | 79% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 152.2 | 80% | 67–106 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 149.3 | 45% | 82–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 151.4 | 59% | 72–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 144.1 | 65% | 55–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 144.1 | 35% | 63–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 146.4 | 61% | 72–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 156.4 | 66% | 61–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 140.2 | 57% | 70–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.7 | 139.8 | 82% | 58–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.