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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
11–2 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+25.5 | 143.5 | 91% | 60–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 142.9 | 87% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 159.6 | 59% | 84–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 130.4 | 58% | 56–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.1 | 153.1 | 89% | 74–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 137.2 | 71% | 58–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 124.9 | 35% | 51–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 142.1 | 70% | 78–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.8 | 150.4 | 78% | 55–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 136.6 | 66% | 53–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 143.9 | 66% | 71–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 144.7 | 33% | 81–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 143.4 | 40% | 73–49 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.