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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.3
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penn State
@
Michigan State
|
-1.7 | 141.4 | 45% | 58–60 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Kentucky
|
-2.1 | 143.2 | 36% | 81–80 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Bowling Green
|
-2.0 | 157.2 | 39% | 71–67 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Kansas State
|
-13.2 | 140.9 | 13% | 80–77 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Vanderbilt
|
-3.7 | 156.8 | 40% | 73–67 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Texas Tech
|
+5.3 | 144.0 | 70% | 82–71 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Georgetown
|
-3.6 | 148.9 | 34% | 63–48 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Butler
|
-1.5 | 142.4 | 40% | 73–76 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
TCU
|
+8.1 | 143.4 | 80% | 76–79 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Providence
|
+0.3 | 135.0 | 53% | 59–70 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
San Francisco
|
+6.1 | 147.2 | 69% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Tulane
@
Tulsa
|
+6.6 | 131.7 | 70% | 58–48 | ✗ |
Furman
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+1.4 | 138.6 | 61% | 58–64 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Northwestern
|
-0.6 | 140.6 | 43% | 79–76 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Charlotte
|
+2.8 | 131.7 | 59% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.