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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–8 on winners
spread MAE 13.3
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Louisville
@
Duke
|
+8.2 | 157.2 | 77% | 52–83 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Norfolk State
|
+13.0 | 151.1 | 88% | 79–78 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Florida A&M
|
+10.7 | 147.7 | 83% | 66–65 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+13.3 | 153.2 | 89% | 73–82 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Ohio State
|
+14.9 | 159.5 | 91% | 78–84 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Stonehill
|
-1.8 | 140.3 | 44% | 59–61 | ✗ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+3.6 | 131.1 | 63% | 64–55 | ✗ |
Arizona
@
BYU
|
-2.2 | 162.5 | 42% | 86–83 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+4.3 | 151.7 | 65% | 80–60 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
Texas Southern
|
-0.2 | 160.6 | 49% | 64–96 | ✗ |
Northwestern State
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+17.4 | 146.1 | 94% | 67–69 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Nicholls
|
+3.4 | 162.3 | 62% | 80–62 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
Pittsburgh
|
-1.4 | 147.4 | 45% | 76–80 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Rutgers
|
-18.3 | 135.5 | 5% | 88–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.