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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Mary's
@
Loyola Marymount
|
-6.2 | 133.7 | 29% | 78–73 | ✓ |
Gonzaga
@
Pepperdine
|
-26.3 | 145.5 | 1% | 96–56 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Seattle U
|
+5.3 | 140.6 | 69% | 67–59 | ✗ |
Omaha
@
Oregon
|
+14.5 | 155.0 | 91% | 57–80 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Penn State
|
+19.4 | 149.8 | 96% | 67–90 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Sacred Heart
|
+4.3 | 141.4 | 65% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Delaware
|
+3.8 | 133.0 | 64% | 61–43 | ✗ |
Southern
@
Illinois
|
+34.7 | 168.6 | 100% | 55–90 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Quinnipiac
|
+3.9 | 139.4 | 64% | 58–64 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Iowa
|
+32.0 | 148.8 | 100% | 62–90 | ✓ |
Towson
@
William & Mary
|
+8.5 | 144.2 | 78% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Dartmouth
@
Florida
|
+27.8 | 154.0 | 99% | 72–94 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
Coppin State
|
-11.4 | 147.9 | 15% | 93–59 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Youngstown State
|
+13.3 | 147.9 | 89% | 73–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.