Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -9000 NCCU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +23 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -19.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -19.7 (+3.3) | 144.2 (+12.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -17.4 (+5.6) | 144.8 (+12.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -19.5 (+3.5) | 146.0 (+11.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -19.0 (+4.0) | 146.8 (+10.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-6 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#154) | -14.0 (#342) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#144) | -3.88 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#160) | -5.09 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#118) | 0.411 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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