Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Matthew Knight Arena · December 29, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ORE -21.5 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Under
Money ORE -5000 / OMA +1800
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual ORE +23 137 Won
Massey ORE -15.8 (+7.2)
Massey Totals 155.4 (-18.4)
Bradley-Terry 88%
Weighted B-T 95%
Efficiency Plus ML ORE -14.7 (+8.3) 148.5 (-11.5) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML ORE -14.6 (+8.4) 148.5 (-11.5) 88%
Baseline ML ORE -15.1 (+7.9) 149.4 (-12.4) 87%
Baseline Plus ML ORE -14.4 (+8.6) 149.8 (-12.8) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORE OMA
Overall 12-20 16-17
Conference 5-15 8-8
Home 10-7 10-4
Away 2-8 5-10
Neutral 0-5 1-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.8 73.9
Avg Pts Against 73.9 77.7
Massey 6.5 (#91) -5.1 (#243)
Bradley-Terry 0.75 (#119) -0.56 (#230)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.32 (#105) -0.86 (#228)
RPI 0.542 (#104) 0.472 (#225)
Shooting & Four Factors ORE OMA
FG% 43.4% 44.6%
3PT% 33.8% 34.2%
REB / G 37.9 32.7
OREB / G 13.8 9.3
AST / TO 1.17 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 51.8%
TOV% 18.6% 18.1%
ORB% 38.1% 27.2%
FT Rate 29.5% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 54.4%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 15.2%
DRB% 69.2% 68.2%
Opp FT Rate 25.4% 26.5%

Game Analysis

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