Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -33.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +28 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -32.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -27.1 (+0.9) | 140.3 (+11.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -25.2 (+2.8) | 143.2 (+8.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -33.0 (-5.0) | 142.0 (+10.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -33.9 (-5.9) | 139.4 (+12.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#15) | -10.5 (#317) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#24) | -2.23 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#23) | -3.36 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#27) | 0.429 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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