Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -35.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -9000 DART +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +22 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -26.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -25.0 (-3.0) | 150.6 (+15.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -23.5 (-1.5) | 149.6 (+16.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -26.8 (-4.8) | 150.8 (+15.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -26.6 (-4.6) | 149.6 (+16.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#21) | -5.1 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#49) | -1.35 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#34) | -2.06 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#46) | 0.438 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 46.4 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 43.8% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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