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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 13.7
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cal State Northridge
@
Stanford
|
+16.3 | 168.0 | 93% | 80–88 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
Texas Tech
|
+14.8 | 166.0 | 91% | 57–87 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Kansas State
|
+33.6 | 174.1 | 100% | 85–94 | ✓ |
Columbia
@
North Florida
|
-13.2 | 162.0 | 12% | 90–82 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Boston College
|
+11.5 | 147.2 | 85% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Harvard
@
Colgate
|
+6.7 | 145.2 | 73% | 78–69 | ✗ |
Liberty
@
Florida International
|
-0.9 | 151.0 | 47% | 97–94 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Georgia Tech
|
+16.5 | 144.2 | 93% | 65–89 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Louisiana
|
-3.4 | 123.6 | 38% | 54–63 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Colorado
|
+10.7 | 170.1 | 84% | 86–81 | ✗ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
SMU
|
+17.3 | 176.3 | 94% | 63–110 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Richmond
|
+13.5 | 156.9 | 89% | 77–72 | ✗ |
Washington State
@
Portland
|
-1.1 | 151.3 | 46% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
George Mason
|
+16.5 | 145.8 | 93% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Oregon State
|
-4.6 | 149.0 | 34% | 102–64 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
San Diego
|
-5.3 | 145.0 | 32% | 54–66 | ✗ |
Old Dominion
@
Maryland
|
+7.8 | 152.7 | 76% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.