Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -2800 WIN +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +30 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -15.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (-23.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -14.5 (+15.5) | 161.2 (-17.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -15.0 (+15.0) | 162.8 (-18.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -16.0 (+14.0) | 161.9 (-17.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -15.0 (+15.0) | 161.0 (-17.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#30) | 4.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#18) | -0.17 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.35 (#19) | -0.11 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#7) | 0.498 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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