Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -850 CHSO +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHSO +5 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -13.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -10.3 (-15.3) | 158.5 (-9.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -13.0 (-18.0) | 150.7 (-1.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -13.3 (-18.3) | 151.0 (-2.0) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -14.5 (-19.5) | 153.7 (-4.7) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#93) | -2.3 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#71) | -0.94 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#55) | -1.29 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#103) | 0.434 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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