Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UL -162 NORF +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +9 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -3.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -4.0 (+13.0) | 129.5 (-12.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.2 (+12.2) | 127.5 (-10.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -2.0 (+11.0) | 127.9 (-10.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.3 (+12.3) | 130.7 (-13.7) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-6 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#336) | -5.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#344) | -1.20 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.98 (#344) | -1.79 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#343) | 0.446 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.0% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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