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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern Washington
@
Oregon
|
+13.6 | 155.3 | 89% | 52–69 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
North Florida
|
+2.5 | 124.9 | 59% | 79–77 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Norfolk State
|
+1.4 | 142.9 | 55% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+30.2 | 147.1 | 100% | 68–71 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Middle Tennessee
|
+3.4 | 124.5 | 62% | 80–70 | ✗ |
Lipscomb
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+10.4 | 146.0 | 83% | 77–82 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Iona
|
+15.8 | 143.5 | 92% | 83–72 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Kansas
|
-1.3 | 159.5 | 45% | 72–73 | ✗ |
Stetson
@
South Florida
|
+16.5 | 135.5 | 93% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Miami
|
-1.5 | 148.1 | 45% | 54–58 | ✗ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Longwood
|
+15.6 | 146.7 | 92% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Utah
|
+16.3 | 132.5 | 93% | 59–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.