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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–3 on winners
spread MAE 11.6
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kent State
@
Toledo
|
-1.4 | 152.8 | 47% | 93–78 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Iona
|
+13.5 | 140.0 | 87% | 55–76 | ✓ |
Duke
@
Virginia
|
-1.2 | 127.8 | 46% | 59–49 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+2.6 | 152.2 | 62% | 56–78 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+0.8 | 138.0 | 54% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
UCLA
|
+3.3 | 147.8 | 62% | 61–59 | ✗ |
Grand Canyon
@
Southern Utah
|
-0.1 | 151.1 | 49% | 84–66 | ✓ |
Princeton
@
Yale
|
+4.9 | 143.0 | 68% | 74–65 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Alabama
|
+6.5 | 144.2 | 75% | 63–82 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+1.2 | 128.9 | 57% | 56–68 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+7.3 | 135.7 | 77% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Penn State
@
Purdue
|
+5.1 | 137.5 | 72% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.