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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Akron
@
Kent State
|
+0.1 | 130.9 | 52% | 75–55 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana State
|
+3.8 | 151.4 | 65% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Duke
|
+4.2 | 143.6 | 70% | 82–67 | ✗ |
Louisiana Tech
@
UAB
|
+4.2 | 146.3 | 66% | 73–82 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Arizona
|
+2.3 | 153.9 | 59% | 76–84 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
-2.0 | 149.9 | 41% | 73–65 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
New Mexico State
|
+2.3 | 139.4 | 61% | 52–66 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
Long Beach State
|
-0.0 | 140.7 | 49% | 72–71 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Princeton
|
+3.0 | 145.5 | 63% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Tennessee
|
+5.4 | 136.7 | 73% | 50–65 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Davidson
|
+3.3 | 140.3 | 67% | 64–62 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+5.1 | 138.4 | 69% | 53–71 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Purdue
|
-0.2 | 156.4 | 49% | 75–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.