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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–5 on winners
spread MAE 12.4
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Texas
@
Villanova
|
+3.9 | 127.2 | 65% | 61–84 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Oklahoma State
|
+5.1 | 144.2 | 70% | 80–70 | ✗ |
Stetson
@
Bowling Green
|
+7.9 | 151.1 | 78% | 53–52 | ✗ |
Oregon
@
Iowa
|
+4.9 | 145.4 | 69% | 95–80 | ✗ |
Coastal Carolina
@
Bryant
|
+1.9 | 149.2 | 57% | 93–82 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
Gonzaga
|
+11.8 | 155.8 | 84% | 71–87 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
UCLA
|
+1.8 | 136.7 | 57% | 47–67 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Pepperdine
|
+7.8 | 144.5 | 77% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Creighton
|
+6.0 | 149.4 | 73% | 58–72 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Michigan
|
+4.1 | 149.4 | 66% | 78–86 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Florida State
|
-2.4 | 138.2 | 39% | 53–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.