Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -250 STET +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +1 | 105 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -8.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-45.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -7.9 (-8.9) | 151.1 (-46.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -5.4 (-6.4) | 146.3 (-41.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -7.7 (-8.7) | 150.0 (-45.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -7.2 (-8.2) | 150.9 (-45.9) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-12 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | -5.8 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#173) | -1.13 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#168) | -1.18 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#184) | 0.444 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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