Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP -600 LONG +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +14 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -7.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -7.8 (+6.2) | 144.5 (+1.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -5.3 (+8.7) | 140.0 (+6.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -7.4 (+6.6) | 144.1 (+1.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -6.5 (+7.5) | 145.7 (+0.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 7-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#120) | -4.4 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#106) | -1.48 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#110) | -1.66 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#130) | 0.449 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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