Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | BRY +150 CCU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +11 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | BRY -2.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -1.9 (-12.9) | 149.2 (+25.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -0.2 (-10.8) | 151.1 (+23.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -2.3 (-13.3) | 150.8 (+24.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -1.8 (-12.8) | 150.2 (+24.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#122) | 0.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#125) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#128) | 0.38 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#71) | 0.505 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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