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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida State
@
Louisville
|
+3.6 | 144.7 | 66% | 78–65 | ✗ |
The Citadel
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+6.3 | 159.2 | 75% | 73–87 | ✓ |
VMI
@
East Tennessee State
|
+4.3 | 144.6 | 71% | 81–92 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
Baylor
|
+13.2 | 145.6 | 87% | 69–77 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Air Force
|
+0.6 | 140.1 | 57% | 77–58 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+2.6 | 137.3 | 63% | 50–59 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
UNLV
|
+10.3 | 138.1 | 86% | 46–53 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Towson
|
-1.9 | 144.3 | 43% | 74–78 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Kent State
|
+5.4 | 157.8 | 73% | 81–84 | ✓ |
High Point
@
Longwood
|
+0.0 | 133.6 | 50% | 54–75 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Ohio State
|
+6.7 | 140.8 | 76% | 67–65 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma
|
+14.7 | 138.6 | 88% | 50–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.