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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–3 on winners
spread MAE 10.7
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarleton State
@
Weber State
|
+12.8 | 140.9 | 87% | 79–94 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+1.0 | 147.0 | 52% | 77–85 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Towson
|
-3.7 | 145.4 | 34% | 69–72 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
UConn
|
+11.7 | 146.2 | 87% | 74–70 | ✗ |
Sacramento State
@
Idaho State
|
+1.3 | 126.8 | 52% | 70–65 | ✗ |
Western Carolina
@
Samford
|
+1.3 | 160.7 | 56% | 78–82 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
La Salle
|
+3.3 | 142.9 | 66% | 83–90 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alcorn State
|
+1.8 | 156.5 | 57% | 48–82 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Southern
|
+20.8 | 141.3 | 90% | 61–102 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.