And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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11–4 on winners spread MAE 11.7 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Southern Indiana @ Michigan State +2.1 142.6 65% 51–74 ✓
Tarleton State @ Florida International +6.7 138.3 69% 82–65 ✗
Northwestern State @ Tulane — — — 71–88 —
American University @ William & Mary — — — 56–75 —
East Tennessee State @ Elon — — — 76–79 —
Army @ Stonehill +6.8 132.8 56% 44–57 ✓
North Florida @ Charleston Southern — — — 81–70 —
South Carolina State @ South Florida — — — 52–96 —
Fairfield @ Rhode Island +13.4 147.4 83% 80–93 ✓
James Madison @ Kent State — — — 113–108 —
Howard @ Georgia Tech +13.0 149.2 84% 85–88 ✓
Utah Valley @ Sam Houston — — — 79–73 —
Western Kentucky @ Wichita State — — — 61–71 —
Mercer @ Chicago State — — — 66–61 —
Stephen F. Austin @ Middle Tennessee — — — 62–67 —
Towson @ Coppin State +0.2 139.8 38% 70–49 ✗
Alabama A&M @ North Alabama — — — 67–83 —
Lamar @ SMU — — — 67–78 —
Omaha @ TCU — — — 60–82 —
Lindenwood @ Iowa State +26.7 136.1 90% 47–102 ✓
Florida A&M @ Nebraska +27.9 143.8 90% 54–81 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ USC +20.0 146.6 87% 59–85 ✓
Cal Poly @ Denver — — — 76–97 —
Cal State Northridge @ Idaho +1.9 144.8 52% 76–73 ✗
New Mexico @ Saint Mary's — — — 58–72 —
Portland State @ UC Santa Barbara — — — 82–76 —
Saint Francis @ San Francisco — — — 52–84 —
Northern Kentucky @ Washington +19.6 140.7 88% 67–75 ✓
Air Force @ Long Island University — — — 82–67 —
Central Connecticut @ Quinnipiac — — — 70–74 —
Liberty @ Charlotte — — — 71–59 —
Kennesaw State @ Florida State — — — 67–94 —
UMass Lowell @ Dartmouth — — — 81–48 —
Charleston @ Duquesne -0.2 141.1 48% 72–90 ✗
Le Moyne @ Villanova +24.9 147.6 89% 57–83 ✓
Youngstown State @ Michigan +16.2 146.1 84% 62–92 ✓
Jacksonville @ Xavier — — — 56–79 —
Pennsylvania @ Saint Joseph's +15.7 142.8 82% 61–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.