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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–5 on winners
spread MAE 12.3
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.4 | 126.7 | 61% | 61–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 144.1 | 59% | 80–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 150.9 | 74% | 53–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.8 | 145.2 | 67% | 95–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 150.2 | 59% | 93–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.3 | 154.0 | 86% | 71–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 137.0 | 58% | 47–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 145.7 | 76% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 148.9 | 70% | 58–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 147.5 | 64% | 78–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 135.4 | 38% | 53–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.