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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–6 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+1.9 | 134.1 | 62% | 47–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 144.4 | 67% | 61–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 143.2 | 47% | 77–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 133.8 | 62% | 61–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 162.3 | 60% | 82–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.5 | 144.5 | 85% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 143.4 | 62% | 78–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.4 | 140.5 | 86% | 68–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 142.1 | 78% | 77–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.4 | 145.0 | 56% | 64–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 139.7 | 57% | 61–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 150.2 | 64% | 90–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 153.1 | 69% | 61–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 140.5 | 65% | 76–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.9 | 149.3 | 39% | 89–95 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.