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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.7
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BYU
@
Wisconsin
|
+2.1 | 150.9 | 44% | 91–89 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
Houston
|
+5.4 | 134.0 | 73% | 76–81 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Tennessee
|
+4.4 | 131.3 | 78% | 58–67 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Incarnate Word
|
-0.9 | 145.0 | 48% | 85–92 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Florida
|
+9.7 | 147.9 | 87% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Army
|
-6.1 | 147.6 | 39% | 78–83 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
SMU
|
+11.5 | 149.0 | 78% | 85–83 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Duke
|
+11.6 | 138.8 | 87% | 66–89 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Northern Arizona
|
-1.9 | 147.7 | 42% | 85–78 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Kentucky
|
+2.4 | 167.4 | 52% | 75–84 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Alabama
|
+7.4 | 148.3 | 77% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Presbyterian
|
-5.6 | 139.1 | 29% | 78–70 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
North Texas
|
+4.5 | 130.8 | 72% | 63–65 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
San Francisco
|
+9.2 | 142.8 | 77% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Maryland
|
+7.1 | 140.9 | 81% | 71–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.