I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · March 23, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread SMU -8.5 Away covered
O/U 156.5 Over
Money SMU -400 / OKST +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMU win
Actual OKST +2 168 Lost
Massey SMU -11.2 (-13.2)
Massey Totals 155.4 (+12.6)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline ML SMU -11.1 (-13.1) 151.0 (+17.0) 77%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -11.5 (-13.5) 149.0 (+19.0) 78%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -9.6 (-11.6) 150.7 (+17.3) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -9.8 (-11.8) 149.5 (+18.5) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMU OKST
Overall 24-11 17-18
Conference 13-7 7-13
Home 13-6 13-4
Away 7-4 3-10
Neutral 4-1 1-4
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.9 73.0
Avg Pts Against 71.3 76.3
Massey 12.4 (#43) 4.5 (#99)
Bradley-Terry 1.74 (#59) 1.13 (#82)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.10 (#61) 1.42 (#84)
RPI 0.559 (#63) 0.499 (#169)
Shooting & Four Factors SMU OKST
FG% 48.0% 42.6%
3PT% 37.3% 32.8%
REB / G 38.6 35.2
OREB / G 12.4 11.3
AST / TO 1.31 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.5% 48.3%
TOV% 17.4% 19.0%
ORB% 36.4% 31.2%
FT Rate 26.1% 29.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 53.2%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 20.2%
DRB% 70.2% 70.4%
Opp FT Rate 24.1% 25.7%

Game Analysis

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