Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -400 OKST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +2 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -11.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.1 (-13.1) | 151.0 (+17.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -11.5 (-13.5) | 149.0 (+19.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -9.6 (-11.6) | 150.7 (+17.3) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -9.8 (-11.8) | 149.5 (+18.5) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#43) | 4.5 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#59) | 1.13 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#61) | 1.42 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#63) | 0.499 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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