Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +190 ILST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +8 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -6.2 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -4.7 (-3.3) | 141.1 (+6.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -5.6 (-2.4) | 139.1 (+8.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -3.8 (-4.2) | 136.2 (+11.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -5.3 (-2.7) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#237) | 1.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#245) | 0.48 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#239) | 0.43 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#281) | 0.518 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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