Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -175 ARST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +2 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -4.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -4.0 (-2.0) | 135.1 (-7.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -4.5 (-2.5) | 130.8 (-2.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -5.4 (-3.4) | 128.4 (-0.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -3.2 (-1.2) | 132.0 (-4.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#80) | 6.5 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#68) | 0.82 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#73) | 1.16 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#41) | 0.560 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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