All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Ocean Center (Neutral) · March 23, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UIW -2.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Over
Money UIW -150 / MAN +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total UIW win
Actual UIW +7 177 Won
Massey MAN -0.0 (+7.0)
Massey Totals 148.1 (+28.9)
Bradley-Terry 38%
Weighted B-T 42%
Baseline ML UIW -0.1 (+6.9) 147.4 (+29.6) 52%
Baseline Plus ML MAN -0.9 (+7.9) 145.0 (+32.0) 48%
Efficiency Plus ML UIW -0.7 (+6.3) 147.0 (+30.0) 60%
Baseline Tuned ML MAN -0.8 (+7.8) 146.8 (+30.2) 47%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UIW MAN
Overall 19-17 17-14
Conference 9-11 12-8
Home 11-5 9-5
Away 4-10 8-7
Neutral 4-2 0-2
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 70.9 75.9
Avg Pts Against 71.3 75.2
Massey -4.6 (#241) -4.5 (#240)
Bradley-Terry -1.09 (#271) -0.62 (#224)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.23 (#262) -0.90 (#237)
RPI 0.453 (#270) 0.482 (#215)
Shooting & Four Factors UIW MAN
FG% 44.7% 43.6%
3PT% 35.8% 34.2%
REB / G 34.0 36.8
OREB / G 11.7 11.8
AST / TO 1.01 1.28
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 50.7%
TOV% 18.1% 16.9%
ORB% 34.5% 32.6%
FT Rate 18.8% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 15.3%
DRB% 68.6% 68.1%
Opp FT Rate 24.6% 18.9%

Game Analysis

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