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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth
@
Charleston
|
+7.8 | 145.9 | 79% | 78–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
SE Louisiana
|
+1.6 | 136.1 | 60% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Pepperdine
@
Santa Clara
|
+16.2 | 155.7 | 88% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Troy
@
James Madison
|
-1.6 | 134.3 | 40% | 79–60 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
Omaha
|
-0.2 | 151.3 | 44% | 75–85 | ✗ |
Northern Arizona
@
Montana
|
+4.0 | 143.8 | 74% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
San Francisco
|
+7.5 | 150.2 | 76% | 75–86 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Towson
|
+4.1 | 146.1 | 75% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Northwestern State
|
-2.5 | 131.0 | 39% | 63–66 | ✗ |
Arkansas State
@
Troy
|
-0.0 | 138.8 | 47% | 81–94 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Furman
|
+0.8 | 140.6 | 53% | 92–85 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Robert Morris
|
+2.9 | 141.5 | 70% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Idaho State
|
+0.0 | 139.6 | 57% | 80–60 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.