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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+3.3 | 135.4 | 65% | 47–61 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Hofstra
|
+5.3 | 146.9 | 68% | 61–92 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Oregon State
|
-1.6 | 143.4 | 47% | 77–78 | ✗ |
Fairfield
@
Siena
|
+1.6 | 133.4 | 60% | 61–76 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Marshall
|
+3.8 | 166.6 | 60% | 82–78 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
North Dakota State
|
+12.4 | 144.8 | 86% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Montana State
|
+2.5 | 143.4 | 64% | 78–74 | ✗ |
Pacific
@
Santa Clara
|
+13.8 | 141.7 | 87% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Alabama State
|
+6.2 | 140.7 | 79% | 77–65 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
Monmouth
|
-0.3 | 145.4 | 55% | 64–74 | ✗ |
New Orleans
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+1.5 | 139.9 | 68% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Wright State
|
+2.2 | 150.0 | 65% | 90–103 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Troy
|
+6.2 | 155.1 | 73% | 61–77 | ✓ |
Furman
@
East Tennessee State
|
+2.1 | 136.7 | 64% | 76–61 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana
|
-1.7 | 146.8 | 41% | 89–95 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.