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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.6
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BYU
@
Wisconsin
|
+1.6 | 151.0 | 61% | 91–89 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
Houston
|
+6.7 | 137.9 | 72% | 76–81 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Tennessee
|
+6.1 | 131.5 | 75% | 58–67 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Incarnate Word
|
-0.8 | 146.8 | 47% | 85–92 | ✗ |
UConn
@
Florida
|
+10.3 | 151.7 | 85% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Army
|
-5.6 | 145.8 | 29% | 78–83 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
SMU
|
+9.8 | 149.5 | 82% | 85–83 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Duke
|
+11.6 | 140.6 | 86% | 66–89 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Northern Arizona
|
-0.8 | 146.9 | 45% | 85–78 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Kentucky
|
+2.5 | 167.8 | 57% | 75–84 | ✓ |
Saint Mary's
@
Alabama
|
+6.9 | 149.1 | 77% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
Presbyterian
|
-5.3 | 139.5 | 30% | 78–70 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
North Texas
|
+3.2 | 132.0 | 68% | 63–65 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
San Francisco
|
+8.5 | 140.5 | 78% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Colorado State
@
Maryland
|
+8.6 | 141.4 | 83% | 71–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.