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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–2 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iowa
@
Purdue
|
+10.6 | 162.7 | 83% | 68–87 | ✓ |
San José State
@
North Dakota State
|
+2.0 | 138.8 | 58% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Furman
@
Arkansas
|
+6.8 | 155.2 | 75% | 83–97 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Alabama
|
+22.9 | 158.9 | 91% | 65–89 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Oregon State
|
+6.0 | 143.4 | 71% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Boston College
|
+11.4 | 142.4 | 86% | 68–82 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Army
|
+0.4 | 132.6 | 43% | 51–68 | ✓ |
Florida Atlantic
@
Illinois
|
-1.4 | 144.0 | 44% | 89–98 | ✗ |
George Mason
@
Tennessee
|
+11.3 | 139.0 | 82% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Winthrop
|
+10.4 | 148.1 | 82% | 82–88 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Xavier
|
+7.4 | 142.0 | 74% | 87–80 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.