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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–2 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maryland
@
Wisconsin
|
+5.8 | 138.5 | 71% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+16.3 | 149.0 | 87% | 55–86 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
UC Irvine
|
+1.3 | 135.8 | 58% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Minnesota
|
+7.5 | 161.7 | 82% | 56–81 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Northern Iowa
|
-7.3 | 149.0 | 34% | 75–85 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
— | — | — | 53–75 | — |
Northern Arizona
@
Gonzaga
|
+31.7 | 155.7 | 91% | 58–88 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Arizona
|
+0.2 | 140.1 | 47% | 74–88 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
West Virginia
|
+13.3 | 135.5 | 85% | 51–73 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Baylor
|
+30.6 | 156.0 | 91% | 56–93 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Virginia Tech
|
+13.3 | 136.1 | 85% | 78–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.