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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
William & Mary
@
Old Dominion
|
-13.1 | 160.5 | 12% | 83–88 | ✗ |
Bryant
@
Drexel
|
+5.6 | 155.3 | 69% | 78–73 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Coppin State
|
-9.9 | 136.9 | 18% | 68–57 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Miami (OH)
|
+8.9 | 137.7 | 79% | 60–73 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Rhode Island
|
+8.0 | 168.8 | 77% | 78–84 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
UL Monroe
|
-2.7 | 149.4 | 40% | 84–70 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Tulane
|
+2.2 | 140.0 | 58% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
St. Thomas-Minnesota
|
+26.4 | 140.9 | 99% | 76–98 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Saint Louis
|
+14.7 | 158.1 | 91% | 66–74 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
Colorado
|
+16.8 | 143.5 | 94% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Nevada
|
+12.5 | 148.4 | 87% | 68–57 | ✗ |
Cincinnati
@
Villanova
|
-5.6 | 144.3 | 31% | 60–68 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Delaware
|
+15.9 | 155.7 | 93% | 80–93 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
Butler
|
+23.8 | 142.0 | 98% | 58–73 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.